The Buck Stops… Over There.

By: Michael | January 22nd, 2009

Well, better late than never, eh? After a stuttering start, normal service should be resumed on this blog. I hope.

After a long, tough season, it’s hard to believe that the top five are still not certain. Going into this final week, three teams are competing for the top spot, whilst five teams are competing for the top four. In all honesty, I would have thought at least the top two would have been determined weeks ago, but Adelaide’s self-implosion and Melbourne’s reluctance to fade away put paid to that. So, going into the last round, the table looks like this:

Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Adelaide United FC 20 10 5 5 30 19 11 35
2 Melbourne Victory FC 20 11 2 7 37 27 10 35
3 Queensland Roar FC 20 9 6 5 32 23 9 33
4 Central Coast Mariners FC 20 7 7 6 35 31 4 28
5 Wellington Phoenix FC 20 7 5 8 23 29 -6 26
6 Sydney FC 20 6 5 9 29 32 -3 23
7 Perth Glory FC 20 6 4 10 29 40 -11 22
8 Newcastle Jets FC 20 4 6 10 21 35 -14 18

The mathematical situation goes like this: whoever has a better result out of Adelaide and Melbourne will finish top. However, if both lose and Queensland win, they’ll finish top. Sydney, Perth and Newcastle are out of it all, and are only really playing for pride. If Wellington wins and Central Coast lose, they’ll swap places and no one really cares about the Sydney-Newcastle game because they’ve both had a god-awful season and it’s funny to laugh at them.

Speaking of final games, CCM Grand Poobah McKinna has come out and said that he’ll pick his team for Sunday based on the results of the Melbourne-Wellington game. This means that should Melbourne win, thus securing 4th for CCM, he’ll basically pick a team consisting of kids & players who haven’t seen much action this year, and some feel that this will give a huge advantage to Adelaide – but, let’s be honest, at the moment Adelaide could play against 6 men, two stumps and three bags of sand and they still wouldn’t have a advantage they way they’re going at the moment. Although, in the interest of parity, the nay-sayers are right – theoretically, AUFC would have an advantage. This smacks of when Vid-a-mar came out and said he’s encouraging players to dive – it’s all well and good to say this kind of shit behind closed doors, but why would you say it in public? Do these people think?

Queensland have to entertain Perth on Saturday night, and to have any chance of finishing top they have to win, but they’ll know the result of the MV-WP game beforehand, and will know whether they have a chance or not. Third is guaranteed for them, so I can’t see them going all out unless Victory lose against Wellington. Perth are missing a stack of players, so I doubt it’ll be one for the ages.

Adelaide travel to the bus stop in Gosford with it all laid out for them – they’ll know whether they have to win, or just do their usual trick of poncing around, not tracking back and cocking shit up. After last week’s dire performance, AU ought to be praying that Melbourne don’t win because otherwise they’re fucked. Predictions for this game go out the window until other results are known, if Victory record a win I have no idea, if Victory lose it’ll be a Mariners win.

Melbourne-Wellington. Let’s be frank here: if anyone really expects the blue Victory steamroller to not win at home against Wellington, you’re nuts. Melbourne are just too strong at home, having not lost since October at the Telstra Dome, and I just can’t see Phoenix getting up, unless something special happens, Smeltz having a cracker and Wellington maybe snatching a scrappy 1-0 win, but if I were a betting man (which I am) I’d bet on Melbourne 2-0.

So, for me Melbourne to win, Adelaide not calling it, Queensland to win and Sydney-Newcastle to draw.

In other, non-final round related news, Wellington have signed Diego after Adelaide informed him that his services are no longer required earlier this week. A decent signing for them, although Diego has been very inconsistent for United. Diego joins the exodus out of Hindmarsh after Salley & Costanzo were also released, Agostino and Valkanis announced their retirements, and The Og Monster completed his transfer to K-League club Seongnam Ilhwa.